Mac's 2101 NFL Power Rankings (Pre-season)

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So welcome back football fans!!! It's finally time for the NFL to get back into full gear and it seems like it has been ages since the Super Bowl.


We're finally ready to dispense with the pretending and commence with the reality that is a new NFL season. The mind-numbing and oft-nauseating Favre watch is now officially over - for good. (We think) This will be his last season no matter what. (We hope) Teams have now pared down their rosters to the requisite 53 players, with teams claiming a few of those potential diamonds in the rough off waiver wires. Hardknocks is now over and Jets coach Rex Ryan will find out what that term truly means in the next few weeks- with or without Revis Island.

In the 2010 NFL season, I believe we'll see a couple of unfamiliar faces in playoff spaces come January, with former playoff "regulars" looking on from the proverbial sidelines. While the Saints might have a letdown from their championship year, there's no reason to think it will be because they are less hungry. Sometimes things just fall into place for you like an Adrian Peterson fumble, or a Hank Baskett muff. There's just nothing that can explain the how or why of it happening, but if you're on the side of "lady luck", then you have been supplied one more portion of that age-old formula "When preparation meets opportunity, success is a likely result." Or words to that effect.

Unless you're the Minnesota Vikings. But that's a whole different subject for a whole different day.

Mac's NFL Power Rankings will normally begin each season with the defending champion at the top of the heap, until it's first defeat. At that point all bets are off and anyone could jump up to #1 at any given time. Generally the first few weeks see quite a bit of change as the teams looked upon as favorites have a rugged start, or teams not expected to do that much ( a la Denver last season through week 6) shoot up into the top ten, only to slide down the rankings later on.
Before we get to the rankings, let me also make the journey out onto the shakey limb that is NFL predictions, and give you my division winners and playoff participants.

First, the division winners & wild card teams:

AFC DIVISION WINNERS & WILDCARD TEAMS

Cincinnati
Indianapolis
New England
San Diego
Tennessee
Baltimore


NFC DIVISION WINNERS & WILDCARD TEAMS

Green Bay
Dallas
New Orleans
San Francisco
Carolina
Minnesota

AFC Championship Game: Baltimore vs San Diego

NFC Championship Game: Carolina vs Green Bay

Super Bowl: Green Bay defeats San Diego


Alright, with the predictions out of the way and the 2010 NFL season is ready to launch, here's the first glance at the pre-season version of Mac's 2010 NFL Power Rankings. These rankings will be updated on Sunday evening (9/12) and again on Tuesday (9/13),following the double-header Monday night games. And throughout the season, be sure to check back with me every Monday to see how the rankings have changed, and where the rankings stack against your idea of how look in the NFL for the 2010 season.

Drop me an email or leave a comment here to blast me - if you feel the urge - or even if you'd like to agree ! (Yes, I'm quite the optimist, aren't I ? )

Let's get started:

1. New Orleans (13-3) - My own personal golden rule of power rankings is this: The team that wins it all the previous season starts at the top to begin the new season. I usually keep them right at #1 until someone can knock them from the ranks of the undefeated, and it starts taht way again this year. It took 13 weeks for the Saints to lose their first game last year, but I doubt it takes that long this time around. Minnesota, at the 49ers, then Atlanta and Carolina to start the divisional race off for New Orleans. That's four very tough teams right out the gate, and it gives reinforcement to the main concern for a repeat in New Orleans: Lack of depth at running back & no real upgrade at LB during the off-season. That could come back to haunt the Saints if injuries do pile up.

2. Indianapolis (14-2) – Minus a botched Hank Baskett recovery of an onside kick (that led to 7 points), some poor coaching decisions, a hobbled Dwight Freeney and a horrible goof by Manning and Wayne that led to 7 more points, these Colts might well be the defending champs for the second time in 4 years. Of course, if the dog hadn't stopped to take a crap, he would've caught the rabbit too. Still, Indy's a very formidable team so long as #18 is at QB, and chances are good they're the AFC South winner once again. That said, they face another year with critical problems along the offensive line and need to get better along the defensive line. The month of November and the first week in December is the toughest part of the schedule, but the Colts will need to jump out to that near-annual 6-0 start in order for a chance at a Super Bowl return.

3. Dallas (11-5) - The Cowboys have the talent and confidence to make the march to the Super Bowl. But then again, they've had that each of the past 3 or 4 seasons. It just seems that now it appears they have both the belief and the mental fortitude to pull it off. But the offensive line ( and by extention, Tony Romo )for Dallas is the key component. If they make it, at least they won't have to "march" very far. If they don't, and ruin Jerruh's Super Bowl shindig, look for LOTS of heads to roll. That's probably why they won't ultimately make it to the big game. And by the way a reminder to Houston fans all amped up by the pre-season thumping they gave to the Cowboys: September 26th is the rematch, and this one actually counts. Good luck.

4. Green Bay - (11-5) Forget about Favre and the drama in the Twin cities, because Green Bay is now THE force in the NFC North. The Packers are going to be a formidable opponent this year and have the ability to go all the way to Dallas for the Super Bowl. I don't think the offense will be the question mark for this team (except for the protection of Aaron Rodgers - especially against Minnesota), so the defense must be ready to clamp down when it counts. The Packers are capable of building up a record of 4-0 before face the Skins in D.C. on the 10th of October, followed by a meeting with Miami at Lambeau Field on Ocotober 17th. Those two games lead into the rematch with Minnesota on Sunday night, October 24th in Green Bay. Imagine the drama if both the Packers and Vikings are unbeaten coming into that game.

5. Baltimore (9-7) - I know, I know....the defense is a bit aged, but check out that offense - and with an additional top wideout for Flacco to utilize. Older defense perhaps, but still a pretty stout one. And the offense can score more than a TD per game now. Baltimore has four divisional games in its first six, sandwiched between the opener with the Jets and a trip to New England. If they can stay healthy, (and they haven't had a good amount of luck in that respect thus far) get more production out of Flacco and get some help from newcomers on defense, the Ravens could be the AFC title champ.

6. San Diego (13-3) – Two big problems keep the Chargers on the outside, looking-in. #1) The defense isn't dominant. #2) The lack of a running game, unless the rookie shines brightly. He has given us glimpses of being somthing special, but the previous few games don't mean anything. Oh, and I guess you could add the choking FG kicker in playoff games as #3. One caveat: SD has one of the easiest overall schedules in the entire NFL. You can count SD's opponents who made the playoffs a year ago on one hand. Seriously. Try it out for yourself.

7. Carolina (8-8) - Notice how three NFC South teams are in the top ten? That's not a mistake because it should be the toughest division in the NFL, just ahead of the entire AFC. QB Matt Moore has basically the same team as Jake Delhomme did and he has an even better defense to back him in 2010. Speaking of that defense, you'd think it certainly has to make the Panther offense better too, since they practice against them each week. Keep your eye on this team as a "sleeper" NFC title game team. It will be absolutely bloody in the NFC South this year.

8. Atlanta (9-7) – Tough call for me here, but I am going to give the benefit of doubt to the Falcons. Atlanta was a couple of injuries away from being a team in the Lombardi Trophy hunt last year, and will be a huge obstacle for the Saints attempt at a repeat championship. Still young at key positions, this ballclub may still be a year off from becoming a playoff-caliber force. However, the potential is there right now. The reason they are behind Carolina in this pre-season ranking is the Panther defense is better across the board at this point.

9. New England (10-6) – Some key offensive additions like Fred Taylor and Alge Crumpler give Brady and Moss veteran players to lean on. Couple that with Wes Welker's impending return and the emergence last season of , and you have a potentially powerful offense just chomping at the bit. Still, with no superior pass rush, the Pats need to score lots of points in order to fend off division rivals Miami and New York. How well the defense plays will determine if the Pats can lock up another division title.

10. Cincinnati (10-6) – Ochocinco gets his new teammate T.O. and Carson Palmer has a healthy Jerome Simpson and rookie Shipley. That's a pretty solid stable of wideouts. Not to mention the big target at tight end now. No reason and no excuses for the Bengals not to light up scoreboards with this offense. Being a devil's advocate for a moment, however, allows me to remind folks that TO hasn't played in as physical a division as the AFC North, and he's not exactly sticky fingers any longer - especially in cold weather. And Shipley and Gresham, though good, are still rookies. It's also time for the defense to step up.

11. New York Giants (8-8) - I probably have these guys too high this early on, what with all the offensive line problems and injuries to some big parts of the ballclub. Eli Manning now has a solid receiving corps but the predicted strong running game isn't that apparent at present. Perhaps that's to change once the actual season kicks off. Meantime, the defense looks to be much better in 2010 (the recent Baltimore pre-season game notwithstanding) and should give the Cowboys a run for the division title. Certainly they're better than the Jets.

12. N.Y. Jets (9-7) – Highly touted as having their "coming out" party last season. Huge media-driven "this is the year" hype underway, including SI's Don Banks drinking the Kool-aid. But nope, I'm not - and I like Kool-aid. Does anyone remember these were the same Jets that were 4-6 after that 31-14 pounding by the Patriots? Sure, they went on a 4-1 tear the final five weeks - against the likes of injury-riddled Carolina, a 19-13 squeaker over Buffalo and a 26-3 pasting of the Bucs. That was followed by a loss to Atlanta and then two wins against the "laying down" squads of Indy and Cincinnati. How that equates to this being "the year" is beyond me. Get Revis back into the fold and I'll buy that they could push for the playoffs - provided that the "Sanchize" doesn't slump in the dangerous 2nd year of a pro quarterback.

13. Minnesota (12-4) – I don't see Favre having as huge a year as he did last season - the schedule is tougher than a year ago. That doesn't even take into account the accumulated injuries that have hit the team during pre-season. The offensive line is a little creaky and their division isn't the cakewalk it was as both Detroit and Chicago will have much better teams on the field in 2010. Add to that the rematch right out of the gate against New Orleans. With all the hype from Viking fans surrounding that game, imagine the reaction should they lose.

14. Philadelphia (11-5) – Remember the old adage "If it ain't broke, don't fix it?" Yeah, but I guess the Eagles didn't. So off goes Mc5 to the Skins and in comes Kevin Kolb. That really wasn't the part that was broken. Oh boy - this could get ugly - and quick. IF Kolb rises to the challenge, watch out NFC East. If not, it's the NFC East cellar for Philly. That's the dilema I have with exactly where to place this Philly team. I am forced to be patient and wait for the season to unfold a little bit in order to rank them more properly. For now, however, the potential is there for them to make the playoffs.

15. Miami (9-7) - Not really sure if they can make a long playoff run, but time is on their side. The Marshall trade will be huge for the confidence of young Chad Henne IF can rise to the challenge of being the main guy. If not, watch out for the reintroduction of Chad Pennington - who WILL find Marshall early and often. Not a bad predicament to have, but the bigger question is how well the defense can rise to the occassion for 16 weeks.

16. Tennessee (8-8) - Once Jeff Fisher gave in to ownership and put VY in at QB, the Titans chalked up 8 wins in their next 10 games. Visions of long term success or just coincidence? So long as CJ2K can remain effective, look for the Titans to battle Houston for a place next to Indy in the AFC South. Pay close attention early on to the Titan defense, as they have retooled parts of it to remain effective and should be a pretty solid unit in 2010.

17. Pittsburgh (9-7) - I never, ever, underestimate the Steelers. The opening four games might be a barometer for the remainder of the season. Their schedule is pretty tough and with Big Ben out those first four games, a 2-2 start would be a god-send. If they start better than that, look out. The Steelers may have ultimately benefitted by the injury of Byron Leftwich, taking out the "statue" for their opponents to tee off on, while being able to insert Charlie Batch or the elusive Dennis Dixon. I'm betting Dixon gets the nod.

18. Houston (9-7) - For the past three years I've said this team is a playoff team. Well, to start out this year in Mac's Power Rankings, I'll just say they have the potential to be in the playoffs. That's as far as I'm going this year Texans. The rest is up to ya all cause the rest of us are tired of saying it, only to have you go out and prove us wrong time and again.
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19. San Francisco (8-8) – Same with the 49ers, only to a smaller extent, as Mike Singletary has had less time than Gary Kubiak to establish his imprint on San Francisco. It looks as though this ballclub might finally have the mental toughness to make the move to a playoff team. Each of their 2009 losses (with the exception of the Atlanta Falcons) came by a TD or less. I'd start them out higher, but will let them do the heavy lifting.

20. Washington (4-12) - Jason Campbell showed that there is a bit of spark in the passing game IF you can lead the team. He didn't, but Mc5 will. That doesn't mean the Skins can rack up the easy "W", but it does mean they shouldn't be overlooked. The Redskin defense will certainly give the team a chance to stick close, so it will be up to McNabb and the offense to close it out in most games.

21. Arizona (10-6) – Many are wondering how Matt Leinart will fare this year as the Cards starting QB. I actually think it'll be Derek Anderson at the helm to start the season, and if he can't get it done, the Cards will be looking for a new QB in the 2011 draft. Could be a down year for the passing attack, so a stout and stingy defense will be a much needed requirement if they want to make the playoffs.

22. Jacksonville (8-8) - The owner won't dump del Rio, at least maybe not until they move west. In the meantime, other than Maurice Jones-Drew, the Jags just don't have any consistent firepower on offense and they dropped 5 out of their final 6 games in 2009.

23. Chicago (7-9) – Big, big season and even bigger pressure on Jay Cutler in 2010. With Mike Martz there, the pressure to dial up big points will be felt each week. Saying Cutler has "Warner-like" attributes didn't do him any favors though. Adding FA Julius Peppers can only help the defensive unit, but letting Alex Brown walk was odd. Will be tough to battle past both the Packers and Vikings.

24. Denver (8-8) - The defense is what worries most in the Mile High city, but the rash of injuries that have decimated the running back corps in Denver is truly alarming. Former Bronco coach Mike Shanahan knew the drill all too well in Denver a couple of times, but now Josh McDaniels must try and find suitable depth to help take the pressure off of Kyle Orton and the passing game. Even though Orton has now seemingly mastered the offense and looked sharp in the pre-season, he's not going to be able to carry the offense solo - especially with a questionable defense.

25. Kansas City - This will be an extremely interesting team to watch this season. Can the team move forward and up far enough, fast enough, to get into playoff contention. They have definitely added some top players on both sides of the ball.

26. Seattle (5-11) – I'm not expecting a whole lot out of "USC North" in their first year under Pete Carroll. Sure seems like the coach has had plenty to be distracted with during the off-season, but Seattle has actually looked fairly stable in pre-season. Of course, pre-season doesn't count.

27. Oakland (5-11) – Good draft(finally) and the addition of Jason Campbell with a chip on his shoulder is better than JaMarcus Russell with a pout on his face. Although Campbell being carted off in the 3rd pre-season game isn't what you want to see. In the AFC West, they'll battle Denver for that 3rd spot to try and stay ahead of KC - but don't be shocked if Oakland disrupts an otherwise tame AFC West.

28. Detroit (2-14) – Well, it's getting better incrementally in the Motor City. With some good drafting and a couple of solid FA acquisitions, the Lions aren't the guaranteed "W"of old for their weekly opponents. However, looking over their first four games, it might be a deja vu thing all over again - at least to start the season. If they do better than 2-4 before their bye week on October 24th, that's a big step forward.

30. Tampa Bay (3-13) – Will remain in last place in the NFC South, but should be a better team - though it's not like they were being blown out each game a year ago. Losing Josh early on doesn't help matters, so it wouldn't surprise me if the Bucs fell down a notch or two from this not-so-lofty crow's nest.

29. Buffalo (6-10) – Marshawn Lynch, Fred Jackson & C.J. Spiller. What a trio for the ground game. The defense is pretty good, but the Bills offensive line and QB seem to be the obstacle that will hold them back from being a consistently disruptive force in the AFC East. Well, that and a myriad of other problems that won't seem to go away. Can you believe someone suggested trading for Matt Leinart? That's funny.

31. Cleveland (5-11) – The Browns may very well end up at the bottom of the barrel at the conclusion of the 2010 NFL season. When they acquired Jake Delhomme from Carolina, and then traded 3 picks in the draft away for RB Montario Hardesty, many like me were wondering what the hell they were thinking. It looks like it might have worked if you watched the pre-season. But now, with Hardesty gone for the season, the running game doesn't look as promising. Which means Delhomme will be counted on even more in the Brown offensive game plan. Ask Carolina how that worked a year ago with a top RB duo in the backfield.

32. St. Louis ( 1-15) – It's a brand new year in St. Louis, with a brand new QB. Unfortunately, it probably won't translate into any brand new changes in their power ranking position - unless Buffalo or Cleveland decide they really want/need that first pick more. If they could swing a deal with San Diego for Vincent Jackson, that would certainly make their offense less predictable and more dangerous.