Visit DraftTek.com ! Here are My "Colts Needs" for 2008 NFL Draft

Be sure to check out team needs for all 32 teams and the latest mock draft for 2008 at drafttek.com, a great site that breaks down all seven rounds for the upcoming draft. And all 32 teams have Draft Tek correspondents like me who evaluate what their favorite team will need to add from the draft, prioritizing each pick.

Now for the Colts, there are several things that will dictate how the Colts proceed in the 2008 NFL draft this coming April. The most talked about (though I don't think the most significant) is the final decision of coach Tony Dungy and whether or not he returns to the team for another season. The reason it's not the most significant element to me is the continuity aspect of the final outcome, either way. Bill Polian will still be in charge and the potential coaching replacement in Jim Caldwell pretty much means status quo for the club.

There is the matter of Dallas Clark's contract negotiations, though Bill Polian has made it clear he will put the franchise tag on Clark if there is no agreement to a new contract. And Clark insists he wants to remain in Indy. So that seems to be a rather minor obstacle.

But the absolute biggest factors include the decisions surrounding three players. Defensive Tackle Anthony "Booger" McFarland, and Offensive Linemen Ryan Lilja and Jake Scott. The decisions made on those three players will have the biggest overall impact on the draft for Indianapolis this coming April. All three are important components of the past success of the team, but all three will probably be seeking more money than the Colts can ultimately offer.

Lilja and Scott are two of Indy's starting offensive linemen. Both are quality lineman who have done an outstanding job at their positions and both are young players (going into their 5th year each) who have had some injuries, but have come through to be effective contributors to an often under-appreciated element of the offensive success. Should both be lost in free agency, the Colts will have to use at least two draft picks for their replacements. That would leave just four picks (not counting supplemental picks) to utilize for other areas of the team because the Colts traded their first round pick of this year to San Francisco during the 2007 draft.

It is my opinion the Colts need another sturdy, but fleet-footed running back that can catch the ball as well as move the pile. Joe Addai was bruised and battered by week 10, and the Colts could not get the same efficiency out of Kenton Keith. Plus Keith isn't exactly a pass-catching guru. So an additional running back, in my mind, is a critical need this year.

Defensively, the situation is up in the air with regards to the DT position. Is McFarland coming back? If not, he'll be a tremendous loss and the Colts will obviously need to draft another, even though Ed Johnson, Darrell Reid and Quinn Pitcock shared those duties at various times this past season. Because of the play of those three backups, the drive to get a DT with their first pick in the second round isn't critical. But it is important. Either running back or DT (if McFarland doesn't return) with the first pick for the Colts in the 2008 draft.

After that, the Colts could use some help at cornerback and defensive end. Althought the secondary unit is deep, there is just no way the Colts can afford to have Tim Jennings on the field. Nor T.J. Rushing, either as a corner or a return specialist. Jamar Adams, 6-1 DB from Michigan would be a good 3rd round pickup here. And without Dwight Freeney, Mathis and Brock cannot generate enough of an outside push against the elite offensive lines in the league (read: New England and San Diego) to create the pressure needed in a Tampa 2 scheme.

So in summary to this point, if the Colts lost McFarland, Scott and Lilja, they would need to draft the following positions, probably in this order:

DT, RB, DE, CB, OL, OL. Or, DE, DT, RB, CB, OL, OL. That is six of seven picks right there, no matter the actual order. The final regular draft pick could be at wideout, (which is elevated immensely if Marvin Harrison cannot come back next season due to injury or surgery) or if the Colts do not believe Aromashodu is likely to work out as a competent receiving target. I like Aromashodu, and think he needs more time with Manning and the first unit to develop into a solid contributor. A linebacker or a backup and eventual replacement for Center Jeff Saturday is also a possibility with the other pick.

Keep in mind that historically, Bill Polian drafts offensive lineman in later rounds, then turns them over to one of the best line coaches in all football - Howard Mudd. What's more, there are solid players at running back who will be available all the way to the 3rd through 5th round because of the flood of defensive talent coming into the '08 draft. That means the second round draft for Indy will probably be defense.

Not a lot of ambiguity in the draft for the Colts this year, as their needs are quite obvious if they lose all three of those aforementioned starters. They aren't going to be hassled by a first round draft pick and the attendant money associated with it, so that helps. And without the 3 former starters, that drops some more money off the total cap.

Still, there is plenty of quality talent available in the 2008 draft and the Colts will have plenty of opportunity to enhance their team, which already enjoys the comfort of knowing it will have nearly the identical team returning next season.

As I said to begin with, some of this is predicated on what coach Dungy decides to do with his future, and whether his departure would be immediately filled by assistant coach Jim Caldwell. And I would suspect there would be no significant shift in team philosophy, so that would more or less guarantee continuity, as would Bill Polian. But most of the decisions will because of the potential losses to free agency on the offensive line and McFarland at DT.

Now I will use the matrix that I use as a correspondent for drafttek.com

It goes from 1-9.

Priority Code Definitions

P1- Highest Priority for Starter, will reach - only 1 per team
P2 - High Priority in need of starter, will possibly reach
P3 - High Priority in need of starter will not reach
P4 - General Need for Depth, Value Only - No reach
P5 - General Need for Depth
P6 - Operational only in lower rounds (rd 5-7)
P9- Will Not Draft - absolutely no need, do not select

Quantity Code Definition

blank - Will select at most 1
M - may select more than 1 at this position

Player Lockout List

Identify collegiate players that willnot fit what your team is looking for. Only positions of high need (P1,P2,P3)

So with that, here is my matrix for the Colts for the 2008 draft:


INDIANAPOLIS COLTS OFFENSE:

QB - 9 But I do wonder why they resigned Jim Sorgi as backup. The Colts are one of the only teams that carry just two quarterbacks. Punter Hunter Smith is the worst case scenario emergency QB if Manning and Sorgi are out. This is more of a supplemental draft pickup OR a vet minimum signing of an aging free agent.

RB - 3 Kenton Keith is a good #3 back, but he had problems catching passes (a cardinal sin in Indy) and doesn't have the bulk to bust through in 3rd and short situations. The Colts need a rotating starter like they had in Dominic Rhodes to share carries with Joe Addai. Addai was banged up mid to late season and wore down, creating the need for Keith to handle more carries than expected. The results weren't that pleasant. The Colts will be looking at a Jehruu Caulcrick (6-0, 255lb) type out of Michigan State, or someone like Arian Foster, 6-1, 215 from Tennessee. Big enough for short yardage, but speed to get to the second level and keep moving the chains, while wearing down the defense.

WR - 4 This may go to 3, even 2, depending on how the Colts evaluate Marvin Harrison and any potential surgery in the off-season. Rookie Anthony Gonzales benefitted from the Harrison injury (though was out due to injury a few games himself) and looks ready to take over the slot receiver position, allowing the Colts to use Dallas Clark in a more traditional TE setup. Depth at WR isn't the question, but rather, the quality of the depth. Roy Hall may be the odds on favorite if he can stay healthy. Craphonso Thorpe and Devin Aromashodo are the backups. They both showed promise during the times when they did get into the lineup with both Harrison and Gonzales out with injury. However, they didn't/don't get the required time in practice with Manning to equal the necessary production at that position. If Marvin has an enduring injury, then the Colts are forced to make a play for a top WR in the early rounds.

OT - 4- This position is set with the exceptional job by Tony Ugoh. There is always the need for added depth, so a "tweener" that can flex between OG and OT may be picked up here. Much depends on whether the Colts re-sign Lilja and Diem in the off-season. If they lose both to FA, the priortiy jumps up to 2. If they retain Diem, then the need for another OT is lessened. Bill Polian does not reach for offensive lineman. In fact, he usually waits until late in the draft and picks up the folks most people leave behind. And then there is offensive line coach Howard Mudd.

OG - 3. Again, it depends on the status of Lilja and Diem. But when injuries decimated the offensive line this past season, many stepped up and did a pretty decent job most of the time. . Michael Toudouze, 2 year player out of TCU received valuable playing time when the injuries hit this past season, and he could become the starter if Lilja or Diem both go. Diem looks to be the most vulnerable of the two in terms of not being re-signed if the Colts had to choose. Again, Bill Polian always seems to find great talent late in the draft, and Howard Mudd is one of the all-time best coaching up lineman. But the Colts seriously need a 6-4, 290+ type OG in this draft.


TE -4 Dallas Clark will be resigned or tagged. Bryan Fletcher has been okay and Utecht is too fragile to remain an option if he doesn't break out in 2008. If the Colts have to "tag" Dallas this year, that still leaves his future up in the air. The Colts ALWAYS look down the road past the obvious present. Which may mean that TE is a bigger priority this year than many suspect.


OC - 4 - Jeff Saturday is an exceptional starter. Pro Bowler the past two seasons, his age is requiring the Colts to begin looking for an eventual replacement. Coming into his 10th season, this veteran leader is Peyton Manning's glue. Given the aforementioned Polian perogative of late-round drafts for lineman on offense, and the uncertain long-term status of playmakers like Harrison and Clark, chances are slim they tab a replacement this year.

FB - 6, but almost a 9. Luke Lawton is going into his 4th season at the position and does a good job. Unless Owen Schmidtt is available, there isn't a pick at this position.


INDIANAPOLIS COLTS DEFENSE


DT - 4 Depends on the re-signing of Anthony "Booger" McFarland. If he returns, the Colts will not concentrate on this area as McFarland, Darrell Reid, undrafted sensation Ed Johnson and rookie Quinn Pitcock can provide adequate depth at this position.

DE - 4 - Freeney is one of a kind and it showed how big an impact he makes when the Colts were unable to shake Phillip Rivers in the AFC playoff game at Indy. Robert Mathis and Raheem Brock are good when Freeney is drawing attention to the other side. When he is not there, both are reduced to "pretty good" pass rushers. Look for the Colts to add at least one draft pick at this position. Rookie Kenyata Dawson did well and both he and Josh Thomas gained a lot of experience when the defense battled through multiple injuries. Same for Jeff Charleston, a two year vet from Idaho State. But Thomas hasn't "wowed" anyone and may be too slow to make the impact necessary for the defensive scheme.

LB - 6 Gary Brackett, Rob Morris and Freddy Keiaho, along with young Clint Sessions and Rocky Boiman collaboratively get the job done. I think the Colts have the nucleus and depth pretty much established at this position,. Rookies Ramon Guzman and Victor Worsley didn't see a ton of action, so their overall value is unknown at present, but they do add to the young depth of the Colt defense. I would have suspected that if an unexpected talent was sitting there at rounds 3 through 5, they pull the trigger. But with questions at OL and the overall health of Marvin and Freeney, plus long term future of Dallas Clark, I'm not so sure anymore.

SS - 6 The Colts are deep here. Melvin Bullit showed great promise, Matt Giordano is lightning quick and gaining more confidence with each game. AAntoine Bethea is a monster who is going into his third year with unlimited potential. Rookie Brandon Condren wasn't heard about much this season, so it remains to be seen if he is still around.

FS - 9 Bob Sanders. Nuff said. Giordano backs up this position.

CB - 4 For most of the year, I thought the Colt secondary was their strong suit defensively. Good depth and the starters were having great games. Then came the losses to New England and San Diego (both times). Tim Jennings was burned in the New England and San Diego game repeatedly. Jenning will survive so long as they utilize him against WR's around 5-11 to 6-2. After that, he is a liability. Michael Coe showed significant improvement this past year and at 6-0 isn't too small to match up against the taller WR's in the league. But other than those two and starters Hayden and Jackson, the Colts need more playmakers.

PK - 9 Hunter the punter is solid.....when he does get the chance.



Boiled down matrix:

Offense
QB - P9
RB - P3
WR - P4
OT - P4
OG - P3
TE - P4
C - P4
FB - P6

Defense

DT - P5
DE - P4
LB - P6
SS - P6
FS - P9
CB - P4
PK - P9